Murmur allows 10 forecasts per day to keep costs sustainable.
Take a look at other forecasts below, or come back tomorrow.
Panel mean
iSimple average of all forecaster estimates. Best interpretation if you believe the personas share systematic biases from the same base model.
Extremized
iGeometric mean of odds with Tetlock extremization (d=2.5). Pushes consensus away from 50%. Best interpretation if you believe the personas are reasoning independently. Validated on human superforecasters, but LLM personas sharing a base model may be less independent — treat this as the lower bound.